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Автор: sveta on . Posted in 2015-1

UDC 620.2:622.339
Postgraduate of Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics
Background. The increasing demand for amber jewelry and rapid market changes, that depends on the economic instruments – the supply and demand for raw amber, makes topical the problem of prognostic, substantiated appraisement for goods on this segment of jewelry market nowadays.
The aim of work lies in practical reflection of forecasting procedure of amber articles unit value that is based on the present information about the supply of the similar or equivalent goods.
Material and methods. We monitored the jewelry market and formed a research database, which is a list of offered amber products with one hundred samples. Created database had been sorted by value unit for 1 gram of amber jewelry. Analysis of information about supply of amber articles performed by using the theory of database processing and mathematical forecasting methods allowed us to diagrammatize the general trend of increase of the jewelry's unit value in accordance with the increase of the "order value" parameter, i.e. the number of positive information about the product.
Results. Conducted empirical researches and settlements indicated the linear dependence between the aforementioned parameters. Therefore, with the high degree of probability we can use the following regression equation: Р = 2(0.049 · х + 2.39) to calculate the unit value (P) of any exanimated article from amber that related with the certain "order of value" parameter (x).
Conclusion. Analyzing the supply of the real market we can determine the forecast value of amber articles with sufficient reliability. At the same time, expert should use information about consumer properties of researched object in order to identify the groups of goods that are most allied by the "order of value" parameter and have some purpose for using by potential buyers with the certain purchasing opportunities.
Described procedure of goods value prediction has several advantages compared to the approaches of property appraisal established by regulations of Ukraine. Also identification and ordering of the amber articles evaluation criteria and groups of products from amber based on the results of such forecasting will contribute to solving a number of expert tasks.
Keywords: amber, jewelry precious gems of organik origin, approaches of property appraisal, market value, "order of value" parameter, regression equation, linear dependence.